The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke revisit Uber (NYSE: UBER), one of the largest holdings in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio, fifteen months after they first pitched it. In that time, Uber’s operating profits have roughly doubled, free cash flow has climbed to about $10 billion a year, gross bookings are compounding around 20% annually, and the board authorized a new $20 billion buyback. And yet the stock is flat, with its multiple of operating profits cut from 55 times down to roughly 22 times.

Shawn and Daniel discuss why the market is pricing Uber as though autonomy ends the story — Waymo raising $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation, roughly the same market cap as all of Uber, and formally ending its exclusive partnerships in Austin and Atlanta. They dig into the more than 20 AV partners Uber has lined up in response, from Nuro and Lucid to Rivian, NVIDIA, Zoox, WeRide, Baidu, and Pony.ai, plus Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero, the margin inflection driven by advertising, insurance normalization, and Uber One — and whether the market is writing down the entire company for a risk that touches maybe a tenth of its profits.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:44) Why Uber’s stock is flat while its operating profits have doubled

(00:03:53) How Uber’s operating margins swung 55 percentage points in under six years

(00:05:12) Why advertising, Uber One, and insurance reform keep pushing margins higher

(00:24:09) What Waymo ending its exclusive deals in Austin and Atlanta really means

(00:36:22) How much of Uber’s profits are genuinely exposed to robotaxis

(00:41:28) Why Uber is racing to sign more than 20 autonomous vehicle partners

(00:49:07) What Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero actually buys it

(00:57:14) Why Shawn and Daniel are happy to keep owning Uber

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Our original podcast deep-dive on Uber.

Lewistown Capital’s Ride or Die: The Self-Driving S-Curve.

Uber’s acquisition offer for Delivery Hero.

Uber & Rivian’s robotaxi partnership for up to 50,000 vehicles

NVIDIA’s plan to launch robotaxis on Uber across 28 cities.

Uber’s investor relations site.

Waymo’s $16 billion funding round.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns:
Grab Holdings, Lyft, DoorDash.

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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley break down AppLovin, the mobile advertising platform that went from a failed app recommendation tool to one of the most profitable businesses in ad tech. They walk through how the company makes money on both sides of the ad exchange, why its data advantage has been so hard for competitors to copy, and what caused the market to turn on the stock so violently after a relatively strong quarter. Along the way, they dig into the founder's track record, the buyback program that made early shareholders rich, and whether the growth story still has room to run.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:01:46) How a failed app became a global advertising platform

(00:10:35) How AppLovin makes money from advertisers and publishers

(00:15:36) Why real-time auctions beat the old waterfall method

(00:28:36) What actually protects AppLovin from Google and Meta

(00:33:17) Why AppLovin bought mobile game studios, then sold them

(00:53:11) How buybacks created enormous value

(01:04:13) Details on the executive comp structure

(01:09:31) What we think triggered the post-earnings collapse

(01:14:55) Where the next leg of growth could come from

(01:24:39) Valuation discussion of AppLovin

(01:26:07) Intrinsic Value of AppLovin

(01:26:31) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add AppLovin to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠
Alphabet, Meta, Reddit, Trade Desk, Uber.

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Follow Shawn on ⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠.

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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Comfort Systems USA, a business Shawn originally passed on at $320 that has since appreciated fivefold due to explosive data center spending. The company shattered original projections, with accelerating organic growth, expanding margins, and exceptional capital efficiency. Despite acknowledging the business quality, the hosts discussed whether the original decision reflected a flawed investment process or was the natural outcome of applying a strict investment framework.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:07:16) How AI data center spending transformed a boring contractor into a multi-bagger
(00:22:43) How to use the backlog to be directionally correct about the company’s future
(00:27:59) About the tailwinds behind their organic growth
(00:41:13) Why surety bonding capacity creates a widening competitive advantage
(00:49:39) About how the return on incremental invested capital has improved
(01:02:20) About their exceptional incentive plan
(01:05:06) Why are we uncertain about Comfort’s high growth metrics 5-10 years from now
(01:09:11) Valuation discussion of Comfort Systems
(01:12:21) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add Comfort Systems to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Constellation Software⁠, ⁠Dell⁠, ⁠Alphabet⁠, ⁠Constellation Software Spinoffs⁠.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley take a deep dive into Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR), the data and AI platform behind everything from battlefield targeting systems to Airbus’s A350 production line, with customers including the U.S. Army, the NHS, Ferrari, and Airbus. Palantir is growing revenue at over 90%, with net dollar retention at 157% and adjusted operating margins above 60% — a Rule of 40 score of 155%, roughly double what the best software companies in the world achieve. It also trades at around 60 times sales, which is why The Economist called it possibly the most overvalued firm of all time.

Daniel and Shawn discuss whether the ontology layer is a sustainable moat now that Microsoft and Google have launched competing products, what Alex Karp and Peter Thiel’s politics mean for a company selling to Western governments, and why twenty years of losses turned into the fastest-accelerating software business on the market. In the end, Daniel values the business and decides whether PLTR deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:02:29) How Palantir’s Ontology actually works

(00:16:26) How AI turned around Palantir’s business

(00:20:59) Why Palantir has the best margins in the industry

(00:34:22) Why no one seems to be able to copy Palantir’s Ontology

(00:38:01) How Palantir grows its customer base

(01:07:36) Palantir's valuation discussion

(01:11:37) How much Palantir stock is actually worth

(01:12:52) Whether PLTR will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley analyze Domino's Pizza, the world’s biggest pizza franchisor built on a royalty-driven, asset-light business model. They walk through Domino's shift toward franchising and away from Company-owned stores, and what that means for the company's future revenue mix and cash generation. Along the way, they dig into whether Domino's royalty engine can keep running at the pace investors have come to expect.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:01:09) Reviewing the Domino's royalty engine thesis
(00:13:30) Why Domino's has moved away from Company-owned stores
(00:26:05) The role of royalties versus supply chain revenue in Domino's earnings
(00:33:21) How Domino's utilizes a fortressing strategy and its effect on store growth
(00:41:16) The competitive landscape in delivery, carryout, and aggregator platforms
(00:43:27) How the franchise model keeps Domino's asset-light and cash-generative
(00:48:47) Domino's capital allocation and approach to share buybacks
(00:56:47) International franchising and Domino's global store growth
(00:58:30) Risks facing Domino's from labor costs, competition, and changing consumer habits
(01:06:29) Valuation discussion of Domino's
(01:07:40) Intrinsic value of Domino's
(01:09:00) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add Domino's to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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